Kelly Criterion Simulator

(kellysimulator.com)

23 points | by aleyan 3 days ago

4 comments

  • SomaticPirate 57 minutes ago
    Interesting, I recently learned about this.

    So there is a term called "Full Kelly" which is were you actually wager the amount given by the formula. This is pretty aggressive and not for the faint of heart. Usually, you do something like a "half Kelly" where you halve the suggested bet amount. Usually because you assume you might be incorrect in your estimated advantage.

    What I haven't found yet is some mental math rule to apply this. Given some assumed advantage, what percentage should I "wager"?

  • butlike 37 minutes ago
    What bet you can make consistently gives you at least 51% odds? As far as I know, the best you can do in a casino is 48%. If I plug 48% into the simulation, it states there is no Kelly edge for that bet.
    • tahoemph999 4 minutes ago
      The first time I ran across Kelly it was WRT card counting. There is some rare positive off the top video poker out there.
      • TaiXi 33 minutes ago
        [dead]
      • g8oz 7 minutes ago
        A similar calculator created many years ago is at https://www.albionresearch.com/tools/kelly
        • nemesis17 36 minutes ago
          Back in the day when I played HU Hyper-Turbos on Pokerstars I created one of these in Mathematica (not as fancy with Monte-Carlo)